May 11, 2008

Dueling data and the open space debate

Editorial

Redwood City residents need more transparency to weigh the future of the hotly contested Cargill saltworks but what they may be getting is carefully manipulated polling data that should be taken with skepticism.

First we learned from Cargill and its partner DMB that residents support partial development of Cargill's 1,433 bayfront acres. Then we heard from environmentalists that the city's voters actually favor an initiative that could kill any such project.

How do the people really feel? The jury's still out. In the meantime, we can put aside the questionable polling data and decide the fate of these proposals on merits alone.

The latest twist in the numbers game came from Save the Bay, an environmental group pushing an initiative to require a two-thirds vote of the electorate for any construction on areas designated as open spaces, notably the Cargill site. Save the Bay and other environmental groups hope to see the saltworks restored as wetlands. The Save the Bay poll contends 71 percent of city voters support the initiative but the group's announcement doesn't tell the whole story.

Noticeably absent from the polling disclosure is a full list of questions and how voters reacted to them, a significant omission since the questions themselves can skew the results. It's easy enough to do. You start by asking voters if they favor despoiling the environment and then work your way toward the proposed solution. Save the Bay has hidden behind the excuse that it used a respected firm, J. Moore Methods Inc. of Sacramento, for its survey of 300 voters.

To be fair, Save the Bay and its allies are not the only group peddling statistics over open space uses. Cargill and DMB are promoting a mixed-use proposal for the saltworks, including wetlands restoration in exchange for housing and commercial development. DMB representatives have distributed survey cards throughout the city and at meetings and reported that 65 percent of respondents support their mixed-use vision. This outreach effort may help developers craft their proposal but it shouldn't be confused with a statistically valid poll of the electorate.

Such snippets of public feedback must be taken with a dose of skepticism until more definitive results become available. We shouldn't be swayed by incomplete polling data from two stakeholders with conflicting agendas.